De Europese Commissie beoordeelt Poolse plan om begrotingstekort te bestrijden (en)

Having assessed the budgetary developments in Poland since the adoption of a new Council recommendation, last February, the European Commission concludes that the deficit is likely to be below 3% this year. But, at the same time, it is expected to rebound above 3% in 2008, according to the Commission's autumn economic forecasts based, inter alia, on the draft budget adopted by the outgoing government. This calls for additional measures to put the Polish budget firmly on a sustainable path, especially in view of the positive economic outlook enjoyed by the country.

" The deficit, this year, is set to be below 3% also thanks to a favourable economic environment. But for the abrogation of the excessive deficit procedure, the correction needs to be sustainable. Unfortunately, the draft budget for 2008 shows that this is not the case. I therefore, look forward to seeing the measures that the new Polish government will adopt to put the public finances firmly on a sustainable path,†said Joaquín Almunia, European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs.

In February 2007, European Union finance ministers (Ecofin Council), on a recommendation by the Commission, found that the budgetary situation had improved in Poland, but not sufficiently to correct the excessive deficit situation by 2007. This deadline was agreed back in 2004, when Poland joined the EU, according to a first Ecofin Council recommendation under Article 104(7) of the EU Treaty.

Poland informed, in September this year, that it expected a deficit of 3.0% of GDP in 2007 after an outcome of -3.8% in 2006. According to the autumn forecast of the Commission services, the 2007 deficit outturn will be even better, reaching 2.7% of GDP, mainly thanks to an incomplete execution of planned expenditure. Also the structural improvement will reach 0.9 percentage point of GDP, which more than satisfies the Council recommendation. Against this background, the planned budgetary adjustment fulfils the Council recommendation concerning 2007.

But the autumn forecast published by the Commission on 9 November [1] points to the risk that the deficit may rebound and breach the 3% reference value in 2008 and 2009, if no additional policy actions are taken. This is because a number of deficit-increasing measures were adopted without counteracting measures by the parliament before the October 2007 elections.

The Polish authorities are, therefore, invited to submit, as soon as possible after the new government has taken office, an updated convergence programme describing additional consolidation measures for 2008 and the following years. The updated fiscal strategy should be geared towards making permanent the correction of the excessive deficit in 2007 and making progress towards the medium-term objective of a structural deficit of 1% of GDP.

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections