Migratiestroom uit nieuwe lidstaten geraamd op 1 procent (en)
A study by the European Commission and the EU Foundation for the Improvement in Living and Working Conditions, based on a Eurobarometer poll shows that, even under conditions of full freedom of movement, migration from all new Member States to all current Member States would be likely to be about 1% of the working age population of the new Member States over the next five years approximately 220,000 per year, in a Union of 450 million. In similar surveys carried out within the EU, it has been shown that intentions on migration are much higher than actual migration. This report is very much in line with other similar studies carried out for the European Commission or by other independent bodies.
The study goes on to show that the typical potential migrant from the acceding countries is young, educated to tertiary level, or still studying, and living as a single person with no dependents. There is an increasing tendency for them to be female.
"This study confirms the view of the European Commission that fears of a huge wave of migration from the new Member States after 1 May 2004 will be proven to be unfounded" said Margot Wallström, acting Commissioner for Employment and Social Affairs. "The new Member States will provide a much-needed input of highly skilled individuals able to contribute actively to the development of the European economy."
The study shows that, in fact, there is the serious risk of a "youth and brain drain" from the accession countries, with about 2%-3% of the 15-24 age-group indicating a firm intention to move. About one-third of those who indicated a firm intention to move are students and a quarter educated to university level.
"The dilemma of migration, as a considerable policy challenge to the EU, is that while labour mobility may be good for economic growth and cohesion across the EU regions as a whole," said Willy Buschak, Acting Director of the European Foundation, "it may put pressure on social cohesion at the local level if not accompanied by a holistic approach to integration."
Unemployment does have an influence on migration, but to a much lesser extent then previously thought and in a limited number of countries. Overall only 2% of unemployed people indicated a firm intention to move. Family situation does seem to influence people: of the 1% that indicated a firm intention to move, 70.4% were single people, compared to 26.0% that were married or cohabiting, and 3.6% who were widowed, divorced or separated.
The study states that "the receiving countries of the EU can expect a high quality labour supply, which should improve its short-term economic and its long-term socio-economic base with a more active demographic structure. This provides more opportunities than risks for the old EU Member States.
It appears that policy in the old Member States has to address a problem of high numbers of aspiring students [rather than one of] measures to support a larger number of migrants who are coming from a situation of unemployment. Extended pressure on existing social security systems in the old EU Member States should not occur in the short run."
In conclusion, the study notes that the impact on new Member States of outward migration may in the medium term be a more significant problem than the impact of inward migration on current Member States. It proposes that the European Union take appropriate regional and structural policy measures to stimulate growth and to encourage young and highly qualified employees to remain in their countries and the promotion of enhanced labour mobility in an enlarging European Union, if it is to be beneficial for both sides.
Background
The study is based on Eurobarometer data collected for the European Commission. The survey was conducted in Spring 2002 in the 13 acceding and candidate countries. Figures above relate to averages for the 10 acceding countries. The sample was 1000 persons per country, except Malta and Cyprus (500) and Poland and Turkey (2000).
On the basis of the data from the Eurobarometer poll, the study goes on to consider the motives for migration, which can be seen to differ quite significantly from one country to another. It also looks at the possible effect of 'brain gain' with highly skilled people in particular returning to their country of origin to take advantage of an improved economic situation and a higher quality of life.
The study and the poll on which it is based make no distinction between the free movement of workers, for whom transitional measures can apply for up to 7 years after enlargement, and free movement of persons in general. Existing EU provisions on free movement of persons, right of residence and freedom of establishment will come into effect on 1 May 2004.
Experience of past enlargements shows that emigration diminishes rather than increases after enlargement. For example, emigration from Spain to the other EU countries fell from over 200,000 in 1970 (establishment of free trade area) to 120,000 in the late 1970s (application for membership) and about 2,000 to 3,000 in the early 1990s (post-accession).
The latest data for mobility within the European Union shows that about 1.5% of employed people within the current EU moved in one year from another region within their Member State or from another Member State. Furthermore a study carried out in 2001 showed that about 8% of the EU population indicated their intention to move to another Member State in the next five years, but only 4% had done so in the past 10 years. It is therefore likely that indications relating to intention to move are higher than actual numbers moving.
The European Union currently welcomes approximately 1.5 million immigrants per year from countries outside accession states.
The poll measured attitudes towards migration into the EU on three different levels:
- a general inclination to migrate
- a basic intention to migrate
- a firm intention to migrate
The study has certain limitations. It is based on data collected at a time when it was not clear which Member States would impose restrictions on access to labour markets. It does not differentiate between different destinations for migration. There is no information on intended length of stay.
For details of the study: